Regarded as an economic indicator, jobs growth represents the number of new jobs created in a specific period, ideally on a monthly basis. A higher jobs growth is an indicator of increasing economic growth and a robust job market in the economy. Increasing rate of jobs growth is likely to have a positive and sustainable impact on the overall economic growth. A dedicated Bureau sends out a survey and publishes the results to track how many jobs are created in the country.
An earnings announcement is a public statement of a company’s earnings, usually done on a periodic basis. These official announcements are released quarterly or yearly to inform the investors and the market about a company’s financial performance. Companies announce their financial reports through press releases on their websites and list them on the stock exchanges website. After the information is released through a conference call, there is a question-and-answer round with the senior management in which analysts, media, and investors can participate. On the basis of the report, analysts then incorporate earning measures such as EPS (Earning Per Share). These reports help investors in making sound investment decisions. Earnings results are announced during the earnings season on a date chosen by the company. Stock prices of the companies take a swing before and after the company releases its earnings report. Equity analysts also predict earnings estimates through their analysis which drives stock prices movement due to speculations. Stock prices even move after the earning results are declared, up or down, depending on how the results have turned out. Source: Copyright © 2021 Kalkine Media Pty Ltd. When are earning announcements made? It is mandatory for every listed company to report its quarterly financial results in the US but not in Australia. In Australia, companies release their financial report on a semi-annual basis. Having said that, many Australian companies also update their shareholders quarterly, but these are not considered official earnings. These quarterly reports are released to satisfy the market demand for information and to disclose the company’s guidance on its performance. The financial calendar varies from country to country and therefore, the earnings season changes as well. In the US, the earnings season starts after the final month of the financial quarter. Usually, American companies start posting their earnings reports in January, April, July, and October. In Australia, companies report twice a year, usually around February and August, or May and October. It depends upon the company’s financial cycle. However, whether quarterly in the US or semi-annually in Australia, these earnings results are required as agreed while listing the company with the stock exchanges. Source: Copyright © 2021 Kalkine Media Pty Ltd. Why are earnings announcements necessary? Financial results help investors, media, and other stakeholders of the company to have a greater understanding of the company’s financial footing. Companies not just provide sales, operating profit, net profits, but also offer guidance and outlook for coming months. Additionally, these reports also have senior management statements directed at the market. Therefore, earning announcements act as an informative document for the investors and analysts to study and gauge a company’s performance. Analysts can provide earnings estimates, and investors can then take wise investment decisions. These documents are also vital for companies when it comes to seeking funding for the business. Financial institutions can also judge a company’s financial health by evaluating earnings reports. The management offers insights on growth drivers, risk factors, etc that impacted the earnings during that particular period. Analysts also assess the earnings results, taking into account the external factors that drove the growth or impacted the firm negatively. These factors could be mergers and acquisitions, bankruptcies, economic discrepancies, policy changes, etc. For investors, earnings reports are essential because these announcements swing the price up or down. Traders keep a keen eye on these reports as it can be a time when they can confirm positions. However, some investors also avoid earnings seasons because of the involvement of various human factors.
What is EBITDA? Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortisation (EBITDA) is a widely used financial metric in evaluating cash flows and profitability of a business. Market participants closely track EBITDA and apply it in decision making extensively. Although conventional investors like Charlie Munger had raised concerns over the use of EBITDA, it is very popular in markets, and M&A transactions are mostly priced on EBITDA-based valuation like EV/EBITDA (x). EBITDA is not recognised by IFRS and GAAP but is used extensively in the Corporate Finance world. It is now a mainstream financial metric that companies look to target. EBITDA depicts operational cash generation capacity of a firm in a given period. It acts as an alternative to financial metrics like revenue, profit or earnings per share. EBITDA allows to evaluate a business operationally and outcomes of operating decisions. Non-operating items are excluded to arrive at EBITDA. EBITDA excludes the impact of capital structure or debt/equity, and non-cash expenses like depreciation and amortisation. A particular criticism of EBITDA has been the inappropriate outlook of capital intensive businesses, which incur large depreciation expenses. Business with large assets incurs substantial costs related to repair and maintenance, which are not captured in EBITDA because depreciation expenses are accounted to calculate EBITDA. Meanwhile, EBITDA can paint an appropriate picture for asset-light business with lower capital intensity. While revenue, profit and earning per share remain sought-after headline generators for corporates, EBITDA has also found its growing application in the corporate finance world and is now a mainstream metric to evaluate a business financially. Perhaps the growth of asset-light business models has also added to the use of EBITDA. Its debt-agnostic approach to evaluate businesses has given reasons to investors, especially for high growth firms during capital expenditure cycles. But EBITDA has been present for close to four decades now. In the 1980s, the growth in corporate takeovers through leverage buyout transaction was on a boom. EBITDA grew popular to value heavy industries like broadcasting, telecommunication, utilities. John Malone is credited for coining this term. He was working at TCI- a cable TV provider. Since EBITDA has remained an important metric to determine purchase price multiples and is highly used in M&A transactions. EBITDA’s application in large businesses with capital intensive assets that are written down over a long period has been a source of concern for many investors. Although EBITDA is an effective metric to evaluate the profitability of a firm, it does not reflect actual cash flow picture of a firm during a period. Also, it does not account for capital expenditures of the firm, which are crucial in successfully running a business. EBITDA does not give a fair cash flow position because it leaves out crucial items like working capital, debt and interest repayments, fixed expenses, capital expenditure. At the outset, there can be times when EBITDA may overstate performance, value and ability to repay debt. How to calculate EBITDA? NPAT: Net Profit after tax is the amount reported by a firm in the given period. It is present on the income statement of the firm and is used in the calculation of earnings per share of an entity. To calculate EBITDA, interest expense, tax, depreciation and amortisation are added to NPAT. Interest Expense: Firms can employ debt in their capital structure, and interest expense is funds paid to lenders as interest costs on principal debt. Most companies have different financing structure, and excluding interest payments enable comparing firms on operating grounds through EBITDA. Tax: Firms also pay income tax on profits. Excluding taxes gives a fair picture of the operating performance of the business since tax vary across jurisdictions, and sometimes according to size of business as well. Depreciation: Depreciation is the non-cash expense to account for the steady reduction in value of tangible assets. Firms can incur depreciation expense on machinery, vehicles, office assets, equipment etc. Amortisation: Amortisation is the non-cash expense to account for the reduction in the value of intangible assets like patents, copyrights, export license, import license etc. Operating Profit: Operating profit is the core profit of a firm generated out of operations. It includes cash and non-cash expenses of a firm, excluding income tax and interest expenses. Operating Profit is also called Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT). Read: EBIT vs EBITDA What is TTM EBITDA and NTM EBITDA? Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) or Last Twelve Months (LTM) EBITDA represents the EBITDA of the past twelve months of the firm. It allows to review the last operation performance of the business. Whereas NTM EBITDA represents 12-month forward forecast EBITDA of the firm. NTM EBITDA is also one-year forward EBITDA. Market participants are provided with consensus analysts’ estimates for a firm, which also include NTM EBITDA, NTM EPS, NTM Net Income or NPAT. What is EBITDA margin? EBITDA margin is the percentage proportion of a firm EBITDA against total revenue. It indicates the operational profitability of the firm and cash flows to some extent. If a firm has a higher margin, it means the level of EBITDA against revenue is higher. It is widely used in comparing similar companies and enable to evaluate businesses relatively. If a firm has a total revenue of $1 million and EBITDA is $800k, the EBITDA margin is 80%. What is adjusted EBITDA? Adjusted EBITDA is calculated to provide a fair view business after adding back non-cash items, one-time expenses, unrealised gains and losses, share-based payments, goodwill impairments, asset write-downs etc.
HML or High Minus Low is the average refund on 2 value portfolios excluding the average refund on 2 growth portfolios.
What is Keynesian economics? Keynesian economics is the economic theory that states demand is the driver of economic growth. This economic theory also states that fiscal aid helps recover an economy from a recession. Certain Keynesian economic principles stand in stark contrast to the Classical theory of economics. The theory was given by John Maynard Keynes in the 1930s and published in Keynes’ “General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money” in 1936. The Keynesian theory stated that government spending was an essential factor in increasing demand and maintaining full employment. What are the theories under Keynesian economics? Aggregate demand is affected by a host of factors: Aggregate demand is affected by various factors public and private factors. Monetary and fiscal policy both affect the level of aggregate demand in the economy. Any decision taken by the monetary authority or the government greatly affects the economy’s level of demand. Say’s Law proposes that supply generates its own demand. However, Keynesian economics suggests that demand is the driver of supply and overall growth in the economy. Sticky Wages: According to the theory of sticky wages, employers would prefer laying off workers over decreasing the existing workers’ wages. This happens because even in the absence of labour unions, workers would still resist wages cuts. Even if the employers were to reduce wages, it would lead to economic depression as demand would fall and people would become more cautious about their spending. Keynes advocated that the labour markers do not function independently from the savings market. Therefore, prices and wages respond slowly to changes in supply and demand. Liquidity Trap: Liquidity trap refers to an economic scenario where there is a contraction in the economy despite very low interest rates. This contrasts with the relationship between interest rates and investment given in Classical economics. How is Keynesian economics different from Classical economics? Classical economics states that the economy self-regulates in case of a disequilibrium. Any deviations from the market equilibrium would be adjusted on its own without any government regulation. However, Keynesian economics propagates that government intervention must maintain equilibrium or come out of an economic downturn. Keynesian economics highlights the importance of monetary and fiscal policy, while Classical economics does not mention any government intervention. Another crucial difference is that Classical economics suggests that governments should always incur less debt, while Keynesian economics advises that governments should practice deficit financing during a recession. Classical economics states that government spending can be harmful as it leads to crowding out of the private investment. However, it has been later established that this happens when the economy is not in a recession. Government borrowing competes with private investment leading to higher interest rates. Thus, Keynesian economics is of the view that deficit spending during a recession does not crowd out private investment. What are the policy measures advocated by Keynesian economics? According to Keynes, adopting a countercyclical approach can help economies stabilise. This means that governments must move in a direction opposite to the business cycles. The theory also states that governments should recover from economic downturns in the short run itself, instead of waiting for the economy to recover over time. Keynes wrote the famous line, “In the long run, we are all dead”. The short run knowledge of the economy would be far better than the long run prediction made by any government. Thus, it makes sense for governments to focus on short run policies and maintain short run equilibrium. Keynes’ multiplier effect states that government spending would increase the GDP by a greater amount than the increase in government spending. This multiplier effect established a reason for governments to go for fiscal support when the economy requires it. What have been the criticisms of Keynesian economics? The initial stages of Keynesian economics propagated that monetary policy was ineffective and did not play any role in boosting economic growth. However, the positive effects of monetary policy are well established and have been integrated into the new Keynesian framework. Another criticism is that the advantage of the fiscal benefits to the GDP cannot be measured. Thus, it becomes difficult to fine-tune the fiscal policy to suit the economic scenario better. Also, the Keynesian belief of increased spending leading to economic growth may lead to the government investing in projects with a vested interest. It could also lead to increased corruption in the economy. The theory of rational expectations suggests that people understand that tax cuts are only temporary. Thus, they prefer to save up the income left behind to pay for future increases in taxes. This is the Ricardian Equivalence theory. Thus, fiscal policy may be rendered ineffective due to this. Supply-side economics has also shown contrast to Keynesian beliefs. During the stagflation in the 1970s, the Phillips curve failed, bringing out the importance of supply-side economics.