ASX 200 Set to Rise as S&P 500 Extends Historic Winning Streak

Highlights:

• S&P 500 climbs for ninth straight session, fueled by US-China trade optimism and robust jobs data

• Westpac (ASX:WBC) reports 1H25 earnings slightly below analyst expectations, dividend and NIM fall short

• Global markets buoyant with strong sector gains, including resources, airlines, and uranium

The ASX 200 futures point to a positive start, up 32 points (+0.38%) in early Friday trading, reflecting momentum from Wall Street’s record-setting performance. The S&P 500 posted its ninth consecutive daily gain, marking its longest win streak in two decades, recovering fully from the recent drawdown and moving slightly above pre-Liberation Day levels. The week saw impressive gains across major US indices: Nasdaq up 3.42%, Russell 2000 up 3.22%, Dow up 3.00%, and S&P 500 up 2.92%.

Investor sentiment was boosted by better-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls, which rose 177,000 month-on-month, surpassing consensus estimates of around 130,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, reinforcing confidence in the US economy. Adding to the upbeat tone were signs of progress in US-China trade relations. Beijing is reportedly considering reengaging in talks after the US initiated fresh dialogue, and China has quietly exempted roughly US$40 billion worth of US imports from tariffs, covering around 24% of its imports from America.

Earnings season in the US has also provided a tailwind. With 72% of S&P 500 companies having reported, blended earnings growth stands at 12.8%, significantly outpacing market expectations of 7.2%. Notably, 72% of companies beat consensus EPS expectations, though this falls slightly below the five-year average of 77%. Big tech names delivered mixed results: Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) beat Q1 revenue and EPS estimates, but soft Q2 guidance weighed on shares; Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) reported a 5% rise in Q1 revenue and an 8% increase in EPS, with iPhone sales slightly ahead of forecasts and China sales better than feared. The company also announced a massive US$100 billion share buyback.

Outside tech, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A) flagged disaster and foreign exchange impacts on its insurance arm, growing its cash position to a hefty US$348 billion. Warren Buffett plans to step down as CEO by year’s end. Meanwhile, Airbnb (NASDAQ:ABNB) issued a cautious Q2 outlook citing macro uncertainties, Shell (LON:SHEL) confirmed it would maintain its investor returns strategy despite falling oil prices, and Reddit surpassed revenue expectations on the back of stronger advertising income.

Oil markets remain focused on OPEC+ developments, with eight member nations accelerating the easing of voluntary production cuts, set to return around 411,000 barrels per day to the market in June.

On the local front, Westpac (ASX:WBC) reported its 1H25 results, delivering NPAT of $3.46 billion, slightly below the consensus estimate of $3.51 billion. Earnings per share came in at $1.01, just shy of UBS expectations of $1.03. Particularly noteworthy were the softer-than-expected interim dividend of 76 cents per share (vs. UBSe 82 cps) and group net interest margin (NIM) of 1.88% (vs. UBSe 1.94%). These misses on key metrics, especially dividend and NIM, may exert pressure on Westpac’s share price and weigh on the broader Australian banking sector today.

Elsewhere on the ASX, Gold Road (ASX:GOR) remains in discussions with Gold Fields over a proposed transaction. Motorcycle Holdings (ASX:MTO) COO Michael Poynton sold approximately 891,000 shares for a personal property purchase, retaining a beneficial holding of 5.8 million shares. SmartPay (ASX:SMP) received a revised non-binding indicative proposal at NZ$1.20 (A$1.12) per share from an international strategic party, up from a previous March offer of NZ$1.00.

Global market momentum remains strong, with broad gains across sectors. Airlines surged (JETS ETF up 4.7% to a one-month high), resources stocks climbed (BHP ADRs up 2.3%), and uranium plays advanced (URA ETF up 2.0% to near a three-month high). These cross-sector moves reflect ongoing investor confidence, supported by resilient economic indicators and earnings resilience from major corporates despite headwinds such as tariffs and shifting supply chains.

Looking ahead, market participants will continue to monitor further signals from US-China trade developments, upcoming earnings reports, and central bank policy expectations, particularly in light of steady inflation readings in the Eurozone and South Korea. The Australian market will also closely watch the banking sector’s response to Westpac’s earnings miss and any spillover effects into sector sentiment.