Congress unlikely to stop Trump's tariffs

Investing.com -- U.S. President Donald Trump's upcoming reciprocal tariffs have wreaked havoc on global markets, leading some Trump supporters to denounce the measures publicly. To stop the bleeding, investors have looked to Congress to step in to reign in Trump, whose tariffs threaten to put the U.S. into recession. However, this is unlikely according to TD Cowen’s Washington Strategist, Chris Krueger.

Krueger highlights that several bills in the House and Senate could curb the tariff power of the President, who is using executive orders to implement the tariffs.

The strategist notes that seven Senate Republicans have cosponsored a bill requiring that any new tariffs receive Congressional approval within 60 days—a tight timeline given that we’re already past Day 77 of Trump’s second term. A companion bill is in the House with narrow GOP majorities (53-47 in the Senate and 220-213 in the House). Even if the Senate passes it, House Speaker Johnson is unlikely to bring it to the floor, and while a discharge petition could force a vote after 30 legislative days, action wouldn’t occur until June. Moreover, Trump is expected to veto the measure, leaving a two-thirds override in both chambers as the only, and highly unlikely, path to enactment.

“Veto override thresholds are 67 in Senate and 290 in House, which is basically 20 GOP Senators and 80 House Republicans that would have to break with Trump on one of his singular issues...and it would be months away given discharge petition shot-clock,” Krueger comments.

He adds, “It is 2025, so expect the unexpected. Nothing would surprise us at this point, but this outcome seems quite improbable given the math.”

Trump’s reciprocal tariffs hit at 12:01 AM ET on Wednesday, April 9th. The president announced yesterday that if China does not relent on its 34% retaliatory tariff on the U.S., their tariff rate would go up to 104%. Elsewhere, the EU would see a 20% reciprocal tariff, Vietnam would see 46%, Taiwan 32%, and Japan 24%, among others. In all, over 180 countries would be hit with reciprocal tariffs.

Markets remain confused about whether Trump is using the reciprocal tariffs as a negotiation tool or whether they will become permanent.

When questioned on Monday about the administration’s conflicting signals—some indicating possible negotiations while others affirming the permanence of the tariffs—Trump replied, “Both can be true. Tariffs can be permanent, and we can still negotiate, because we need more than just tariffs.”

The president has charged Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent with negotiating tariffs with close trading partner Japan, which could be among the first countries to negotiate a deal with the U.S. – if there is one to be had. A potential agreement with Japan is helping the stock market recover on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 up 3.8% at last check.

In addition to Japan, Trump has also publicly stated that Vietnam has asked for zero tariffs, and this morning, he announced a “great call” with the Acting President of South Korea. Administration officials say 70 counties have asked to negotiate with the U.S. on tariffs.

China is absent from the negotiation talks, and the country has said it would “fight to the end" if Trump moves ahead with his new threat of additional tariffs. Trump thinks they are bluffing. “China also wants to make a deal, badly, but they don’t know how to get it started,” Trump stated on Tuesday. “We are waiting for their call. It will happen!”

Overall, it doesn't look like Congress will have the votes to stop the Trump tariffs. It will be up to cooler heads prevailing in the administration to negotiate and sign deals versus letting the massive tariffs become permanent.

This article first appeared in Investing.com