Citi Highlights Strong Demand Growth for Wegovy and Ozempic

September 30, 2024 08:35 AM PDT | By Team Kalkine Media

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Citi Highlights Strong Demand Growth for Wegovy and Ozempic — Image source: Shutterstock

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Highlights

Significant Prescription Increases: Citi reports a 244% rise in prescriptions for obesity drugs and an 18% increase for diabetes medications.
Strong Sales Forecasts: Estimated sales for Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly in diabetes are projected at $23 billion and $18 billion, respectively, with obesity sales anticipated at $9 billion and $6 billion.
Positive Market Sentiment: Analysts are optimistic about Novo Nordisk's promotional efforts and the potential of its obesity drug, CagriSema.

Detailed Overview

Analysts from Citi have expressed a positive outlook for the GLP-1 market, focusing on obesity and diabetes treatments, despite certain supply constraints affecting key market players. Recent data indicates a remarkable 244% surge in total prescriptions for obesity medications, such as Wegovy, while diabetes medications, including Ozempic and Rybelsus, experienced an 18% increase in prescriptions.

For the year 2024, Citi forecasts substantial sales figures for leading companies in this sector. Novo Nordisk is projected to achieve diabetes sales of approximately $23 billion, while Eli Lilly is estimated to reach around $18 billion in the same category. In the realm of obesity treatments, sales are anticipated to be around $9 billion for Novo Nordisk {NYSE:NVO} and $6 billion for Eli Lilly. Additionally, peak sales for Novo Nordisk could reach significant figures in both diabetes and obesity treatments.

Following discussions with executives from Novo and Zealand Pharma, analysts noted that while the Q3 consensus figures for Novo may seem somewhat optimistic, there is a likelihood of raising the full-year 2024 guidance, supported by strong performance in GLP-1 and insulin markets. Citi analysts highlighted that Novo’s recent direct-to-consumer campaign appears to be effectively enhancing its promotional efforts.

Looking ahead, Citi remains optimistic regarding forthcoming positive cardiovascular outcomes and pivotal trial results for Novo's obesity drug, CagriSema. Encouraging feedback from the European Association for the Study of Diabetes (EASD) further bolsters the favorable sentiment surrounding the GLP-1 market, signaling a robust trajectory for future growth.

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