Italian luxury group Moncler’s Q4 revenue beats estimate

Investing.com -- Italian luxury fashion brand Moncler (BIT:MONC) reported fourth-quarter revenue that surpassed analyst expectations.

The company posted Q4 revenue of €1.24 billion, exceeding the €1.15 billion consensus estimate. Full-year revenue came in at €3.11 billion, also topping forecasts of €3.03 billion.

"We would expect consensus estimates to reflect the FY24 beat, with no underlying changes to FY25E or FY26E growth expectations which appear to adequately reflect management's initial commentary on wholesale and space contribution," said analysts at RBC Capital Markets in a note.

Moncler announced a dividend per share of €1.30, while expectations were of €1.14.

The Moncler brand recorded annual revenue of €2.71 billion, above the €2.63 billion consensus, with Asia leading growth at €1.38 billion. Direct to consumer sales for the brand rose 11%, well ahead of the 6.79% estimate, while wholesale revenue declined 7%, in line with expectations.

The Stone Island brand reported revenue of €401.6 million, slightly ahead of estimates, though its DTC growth of 23% missed projections.

Moncler's EBIT reached €916.3 million, surpassing the forecasted €879.1 million, while net income rose to €639.6 million, beating the €604.6 million estimate.

"Moncler delivered a very strong set of results and we found the call reassuring especially when it comes to the health of the Chinese consumer," said analysts at Barclays (LON:BARC) in a note.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), in a note, said that while some bears suggest the fourth-quarter 2024 top-line beat was primarily driven by a significant sequential acceleration in selling space growth (implying continued negative like-for-like sales), they are not entirely convinced by this assessment.

They noted positively that the sequential improvement was broad-based across nationalities.

Consequently, they made only minor adjustments to their 2025 estimates (increasing Moncler retail growth from +7.6% to +8%, which suggests like-for-like sales growth of around +3% and some slight operating margin compression).

Morgan Stanley continues to view Moncler as one of the best-managed companies they cover and believe the Group is positioned for structural market share gains.

However, given the stock's recent strong performance following positive credit card data, and with the current share price of €68 representing a forward PE of 27x, they would not recommend chasing the stock at these levels.

This article first appeared in Investing.com