Don't bank on rates present for Christmas

December 01, 2022 05:22 PM AEDT | By AAPNEWS
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Most economists expect another rate hike before Christmas but opinions on cash rate movements in the new year are divided. 

While the Reserve Bank governor has left his options open ahead of the year's final cash rate decision on Tuesday, many economists and experts have their money on another 25 basis point hike for December.

A Finder survey of 40 experts and economists found almost 90 per cent expect a 0.25 percentage point lift next week, which will take the cash rate to 3.1 per cent. 

But less than half expect the central bank to lift rates again in February.

Impact Economics and Policy's Angela Jackson expects more interest rate rises next year as economic conditions worsen.

"Current economic conditions warrant a tightening of monetary policy and while expecting increases to slow in 2023, consider three to four more rises over the next year likely," she said.

AMP Capital's Shane Oliver said a rate hike in December was likely, but it was possibly the central bank's last in this tightening cycle. 

He said enduringly high inflation, strong jobs and wages data and the absence of an RBA meeting in January would be enough to trigger another 0.25 per cent hike in December and possibly another in February. 

"But by the end of 2023 we expect weak growth and a sharp fall in inflation to drive the start of rate cuts," Dr Oliver said.

For the average mortgage holder, a 25bp hike in December will add $897 to monthly repayments compared to the beginning of the rate hiking cycle earlier this year.


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