North Korea’s Kim Jong Un strengthens ties with Russia amid ambitious economic plans

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un described his country as an “invincible comrade-in-arms” with Russia in a message to President Vladimir Putin, state media KCNA reported on Wednesday.

This statement comes amid speculation about Putin’s impending visit to North Korea.

Marking Russia’s National Day, Kim highlighted the strengthening of their strategic relationship following his meeting with Putin at a Russian space launch facility last year.

Speculation about Putin’s visit

The message followed reports from Russia’s Vedomosti newspaper on Monday that Putin would visit North Korea and Vietnam in the coming weeks.

An official in Vietnam told Reuters that the visit was planned for June 19 and 20, though it has not yet been confirmed.

The Kremlin stated that Russia aims to foster cooperation with North Korea “in all areas” but has not confirmed the date of the visit.

Economic ambitions and development

Earlier this year, Kim Jong Un raised fears by renouncing North Korea’s commitment to peaceful reunification with the South.

However, North Korea’s armed forces have since been tasked with a more pragmatic goal: fulfilling Kim’s promise to build a factory in each of the country’s 200 counties and cities over the next decade.

“The overall regional economy is in a terrible situation,” Kim admitted to the country’s parliament in January, acknowledging his “failure to provide the people in local areas with basic living necessities.”

Despite skepticism about the regime’s latest development initiative, the 20×10 policy, experts note Kim’s growing confidence due to his relationship with Putin following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Sanctions and international relations

Last month, Moscow vetoed a UN panel’s mandate to monitor compliance with international sanctions on North Korea, effectively collapsing a central pillar of the sanctions regime. The Financial Times revealed that Russian ports are being used by sanctioned North Korean tankers to collect oil and petroleum products, in apparent payment for the delivery of artillery shells for use in Ukraine.

North Korea has welcomed Russian tourist groups recently, and Russia’s ambassador to North Korea mentioned ongoing discussions about new rail, ferry, and car routes.

A North Korean delegation led by a high-ranking agricultural official visited Russia this week, as reported by North Korean state media.

South Korean defense minister Shin Won-sik noted that North Korea’s economic situation “has improved significantly” due to Russian deliveries of food, raw materials, and oil products.

This marks a significant turnaround since 2021 when the regime admitted to a “food crisis” caused by pandemic-era border closures, tough international sanctions, and poor harvests.

Economic outlook and development strategy

Experts caution that the exact state of North Korea’s economy is difficult to measure due to the lack of reliable official data.

South Korea’s central bank estimated last year that the North Korean economy contracted for the third straight year in 2022, with a real gross domestic product of $24.64 billion, equating to an annual GDP per capita of $1,123 — about 30 times less than that of South Korea.

The economy, heavily reliant on the production of coal, concrete, and industrial plastics, has been sustained by food, fuel, and fertilizer from China, North Korea’s biggest trading partner.

The state’s resources are supplemented by criminal enterprises, including smuggling and crypto theft, directed primarily towards the military and Pyongyang.

Kim’s regional development drive aims to reduce the country’s dependence on imports by promoting local production.

State media reported that the 20×10 factory initiative has started energetically, with 13 groundbreaking ceremonies over six days in March.

While specifics of factory production are not disclosed, Kim Jong Un is likely to prioritize basic goods such as paper, soap, processed food, and clothing traditionally imported from China.

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